Are environmental land protection policies a cause of housing shortages and unaffordability? It is a common question in Ontario following the rental affordability crisis and a recent scandal surrounding Greenbelt protections. University of Toronto PhD Candidate Alexander Hempel’s latest research examined the question by looking at what happened to Toronto housing prices when Greenbelt protections were implemented in the early 2000s.

Hempel created an analytical model to examine what would have happened to Toronto housing development had the Greenbelt never been created. The data did show price effects up to 2010.

“Using the model, I simulated the scenario in which no Greenbelt was implemented,” Hempel explained. “I did find that the Greenbelt led to a reduction in aggregate housing supply of almost 10,000 units and price increases of 4.1% for houses and 6.1% for condominiums; this corresponded to an increase in condo rent of $675 a year. [Read more…]